Base rates · pump.fun · live
Most launches die in two minutes. Most graduations are one wallet buying its own curve.
408,135 launches from 109,210 creators recorded since 2026-09-20. Any rule for picking coins has to beat these numbers.
1.52%
of launches graduate organically (all time)
1.41%
graduate instantly: the creator buys the curve (all time)
13.9% n=2,916
of organic graduates are up an hour later (last 14 days)
54.0% n=6,208
still have a live pool an hour later (last 14 days)
36,924
launches in the last 24 hours
How they are counted
Every rate comes from every launch the collector saw, not the ones that got attention. Instant graduations are reported apart because they are a different mechanism: the coin is on the pool before anyone else could trade it.
What this is not
Not a signal and not advice. A rule that beats these rates on paper is tested with an exact binomial test, deflated for every rule tried before it, before anyone calls it a finding.
JSON: https://quantbase.live/m?json=1 · MCP tools: meme_base_rates, meme_dataset